The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to take on the Chicago Cubs at the legendary Wrigley Field this afternoon at 2:20 PM ET. The Diamondbacks, who are currently slight money line favorites at -106, will be looking to leverage their recent momentum and solid pitching to edge out the Cubs.
Pitching Matchup
Justin Steele will be on the mound for the Cubs, bringing with him a season record that includes 14 starts and a 2-3 tally with a highly respectable 2.71 ERA. Steele has demonstrated his ability to deliver under pressure, turning in eight quality starts and pitching seven scoreless innings in his most recent outing. His home ERA stands at 3.16, slightly higher than his road ERA of 2.96, but still indicative of consistent performance.
On the other side, the Diamondbacks will counter with Ryne Nelson, who has a 6-6 record and a 4.99 ERA for the season. Nelson, though perhaps not as statistically impressive as Steele, has shown resilience on the mound, maintaining a streak of six starts without surrendering more than three earned runs. His WHIP stands at 1.42, with opposing hitters managing a batting average of .296 against him.
Team Performance and Recent Trends
The Diamondbacks enter this matchup with a 49-48 overall record, placing them second in the NL West and trailing the Dodgers by seven games. They have shown a strong performance in recent road games, holding a 4-1 record in their last five away games. Additionally, Arizona games this season have averaged 9.8 runs, with the team's over/under record standing at 52-42. The Diamondbacks have been particularly successful against the run line, mirroring their overall record at 49-48.
The Cubs, meanwhile, hold a 47-51 record, positioning them fifth in the NL Central and 8.5 games behind the Brewers. Despite a challenging season, the Cubs have shown marked improvement recently, going 7-3 in their last ten games and holding a 4-1 record in their last five home games. The Cubs have struggled within their division, with a 12-21 divisional record, but have found success as home underdogs, boasting a 9-5 record in such scenarios.
Offensive Highlights
Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been strong, averaging five runs per game, making them the second-best in this category in MLB. Standouts like Christian Walker, with 22 homers, and Ketel Marte, with 19 homers, have been instrumental in their offensive surge. Despite a recent setback where they lost 8-7 to the Blue Jays after leading by seven runs, the Diamondbacks have bounced back, winning their last two road games.
The Cubs average 4.2 runs per game and have shown flashes of brilliance from individual contributors. Nico Hoerner has been particularly hot, hitting .378 over his last nine games, while Christopher Morel has added power with three homers in his last eight games. The team’s overall batting average stands at .235, highlighting areas needing improvement.
Betting Insights
The over/under line for today's game is set at 7.5 runs. Both teams have been riding three-game over streaks, and the stats suggest another high-scoring game might be on the cards. A substantial 84.5% of Diamondbacks games surpass the 7.5 run line, and the team holds a 6-4 record when the over/under is set at this mark. Similarly, 67.3% of Cubs games exceed the 7.5 run line, with the Cubs posting a 12-10 record under these conditions.
Projections favor Justin Steele to have six strikeouts, compared to Ryne Nelson's four, with Steele anticipated to concede fewer runs. Despite these individual metrics, the game is expected to be tightly contested, with a narrow victory predicted for the Diamondbacks at 5-4.